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Analog-Based Ensemble Model Output Statistics
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: n analog-based ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) is proposed to improve EMOS for the calibration of ensemble forecasts. Given a set of analog predictors and corresponding weights, which are optimized with a brute-force ...
Improving the Analog Ensemble Wind Speed Forecasts for Rare Events
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractAn analog-based ensemble technique, the analog ensemble (AnEn), has been applied successfully to generate probabilistic predictions of meteorological variables, wind and solar power, energy demand, and the optimal ...
Modeling and Performance Analysis of an Integrated System: Variable Speed Operated Internal Combustion Engine Combined Heat and Power Unit–Photovoltaic Array
Publisher: The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)
Abstract: The paper presents the model of a combined heat and power (CHP) unit, based on a variable speed internal combustion engine (ICE) interfaced with a photovoltaic (PV) system. This model is validated by means of experimental ...
Statistical Downscaling of a High-Resolution Precipitation Reanalysis Using the Analog Ensemble Method
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractThis study explores the first application of an analog-based method to downscale precipitation estimates from a regional reanalysis. The utilized analog ensemble (AnEn) approach defines a metric with which a set ...
Probabilistic Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensity with an Analog Ensemble
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractAn analog ensemble (AnEn) technique is applied to the prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity (i.e., maximum 1-min averaged 10-m wind speed). The AnEn is an inexpensive, naturally calibrated ensemble prediction ...
The Role of Unresolved Clouds on Short-Range Global Horizontal Irradiance Predictability
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: he shortwave radiative impacts of unresolved cumulus clouds are investigated using 6-h ensemble simulations performed with the WRF-Solar Model and high-quality observations over the contiguous United States for a 1-yr ...
A Feed Forward Neural Network Based on Model Output Statistics for Short-Term Hurricane Intensity Prediction
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: AbstractA feed forward neural network (FFNN) is developed for tropical cyclone (TC) intensity prediction, where intensity is defined as the maximum 1-min average 10-m wind speed. This deep learning model incorporates a ...
Probabilistic Predictions from Deterministic Atmospheric River Forecasts with Deep Learning
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
The Bolzano Tracer Experiment (BTEX)
Publisher: American Meteorological Society